Džiugas Telšiai 2–0 TransINVEST Vilnius

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TransINVEST Vilnius

E. Bagužas 90+6'

N. Noordanus 82'

4/27/2024

A Lyga · Round 11Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai34%

×Draw27%

TransINVEST Vilnius39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchTransINVEST Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.33

Džiugas Telšiai

1.22

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 30 away

1.07

creates per match

1.27

1.39

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.27

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.39

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

61%

Džiugas Telšiai or TransINVEST Vilnius

73%

Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius

66%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

14%

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

70%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

34%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

12%

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

74%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

38%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

46%

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.27 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

34%

level

27%

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

39%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

D. Kubilinskas← T. Dombrauskis

35'

G. Nikonovas

46'

Y. Kawachi← G. Jarusevičius

46'

M. Sato← G. Nikonovas

61'

C. Bella

63'

K. Bička← O. Kobakhidze

70'

E. Bagužas← L. Estevez Fernandez

70'

I. Kaškelevičius← R. Ohori

82'

N. Noordanus

85'

D. Trajkovski← N. Noordanus

88'

E. Juška← I. Koshkosh

90+6'

E. Bagužas

Džiugas

TransINVEST

79

Melashenk

3

Malžinska

21

▼

77

44

75

9

▼

Kobakhidz

99

▼

Jarusevič

7

▼

Ohori

23

▼

10

97

33

62

3

29

20

30

6

▼

Dombrausk

5

Domingos

11

▼

Fernandez

19

⚽

▼

Noordanus

Manager: A. Lipskis

34'▲D. Kubilinskas←▼T. Dombrauskis

70'▲E. Bagužas←▼L. Estevez Fernandez

85'▲D. Trajkovski←▼N. Noordanus

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

8Kubilinskas17Bagužas24Trajkovski4Martinkus14Girdvainis23Jankauskas99Gaudiešius16Pilipavičius77Stulga

Manager: D. Vencevičius

46'▲Y. Kawachi←▼G. Jarusevičius

46'▲M. Sato←▼G. Nikonovas

63'▲K. Bička←▼O. Kobakhidze

70'▲I. Kaškelevičius←▼R. Ohori

88'▲E. Juška←▼I. Koshkosh

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

14Kawachi45Sato29Bička12Kaškelevičius55Juška20Kiselevskis22Levšin94Moschin8Klimavičius