Džiugas Telšiai 1–2 Nevėžis: Result & Stats

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

1 – 2

Nevėžis

R. Stanulevicius 14'

E. Kugys 77'

H. Timite 27'

8/14/2020

1 Lyga · Round 11Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai46%

×Draw24%

Nevėžis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.32

Džiugas Telšiai

1.69

Nevėžis

1.32

Džiugas Telšiai creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

2.04

creates per match

1.76

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

2.04

Nevėžis

1.76

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

0.88

Nevėžis

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

70%

Džiugas Telšiai or Nevėžis

76%

Draw or Nevėžis

54%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

24%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

82%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

50%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

24%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

73%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

38%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

61%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

46%

level

24%

Nevėžis scores more

30%

Džiugas Telšiai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Stanulevicius

27'

H. Timite

35'

D. Arlauskis

35'

D. Arlauskis

77'

E. Kugys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff