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Džiugas Telšiai vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
1 – 0
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
3/22/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas (Telšiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai50%
×Draw21%
Kupiškis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
2.06
Kupiškis
1.50

Džiugas Telšiai creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.13
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.78
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
72%
Džiugas Telšiai or Kupiškis
79%
Draw or Kupiškis
50%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
29%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
87%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
61%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
34%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
78%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
44%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
64%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.13 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
50%
level
21%
Kupiškis scores more
28%

Džiugas Telšiai at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs Kupiškis

Džiugas Telšiai beat Kupiškis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas (Telšiai).