Džiugas Telšiai 2–2 Jonava: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Jonava

O. Zbun 28'

Leonardo Antonio 9' (pen)

J. Jorrín 86', 76'

8/6/2022

A Lyga · Round 21Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai58%

×Draw22%

Jonava20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.05

Džiugas Telšiai

1.93

Jonava

1.05

Džiugas Telšiai creates 84% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 24 away

1.07

creates per match

0.71

1.39

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

Jonava

0.71

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.39

Jonava

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

80%

Džiugas Telšiai or Jonava

78%

Draw or Jonava

42%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

34%

Jonava wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

85%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

57%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

30%

Jonava 1+ goals

65%

Jonava 2+ goals

28%

Jonava 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

74%

Jonava (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

Jonava away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Jonava defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Jonava attack 0.71 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

58%

level

22%

Jonava scores more

20%

Džiugas Telšiai at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Leonardo AntonioPenalty

14'

Y. Koike← E. Žarskis

21'

Y. Fawzi← G. Nikonovas

28'

O. Zbun

40'

O. Zbun

44'

A. Mika

62'

L. Čepkauskas← G. Samsonik

63'

N. Stankevicius

70'

A. Emsis← N. Mbo

70'

Jorge Eduardo← Ivo Braz

76'

79'

86'

87'

90+2'

J. Jorrin

Džiugas

Jonava

29

25

2

33

77

▼

Nikonovas

32

Angeloff

6

Motsyk

8

▼

Samsonik

10

Lubas

7

Radchenko

17

⚽2

Jorrín

1

Šarkauska

53

▼

4

36

33

77

⚽

Zbun

83

▼

Aldaír

23

Pyrogov

14

⚽

Antonio

10

▼

Braz

45

▼

Mbo

Manager: João Prates

14'▲Y. Koike←▼E. Žarskis

70'▲A. Emsis←▼N. Mbo

70'▲Jorge Eduardo←▼Ivo Braz

79'▲D. Virkšas←▼Aldaír

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

8Koike20Emsis11Eduardo24Virkšas3Jankauskas31Paukštė16Pilipavičius19Butkus

Manager: P. Kushlyk

21'▲Y. Fawzi←▼G. Nikonovas

62'▲L. Čepkauskas←▼G. Samsonik

Jonava substitutes

18Fawzi11Čepkauskas28Glushach35Fastov23Rocys55Stankevičius