Džiugas Telšiai 0–2 Dainava: Result & Stats

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dainava

9/1/2024

A Lyga · Round 29Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai39%

×Draw28%

Dainava33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Džiugas Telšiai

1.23

Dainava

1.10

Džiugas Telšiai creates 12% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 72 away

1.07

creates per match

0.79

1.41

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

Dainava

0.79

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.41

Dainava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

67%

Džiugas Telšiai or Dainava

72%

Draw or Dainava

61%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

17%

Dainava wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

71%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

35%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

13%

Dainava 1+ goals

67%

Dainava 2+ goals

30%

Dainava 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

54%

Dainava (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Dainava away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Dainava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dainava attack 0.79 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

39%

level

28%

Dainava scores more

33%

Džiugas Telšiai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff