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Dynamos vs Tenax — Premier Soccer League 2026

Dynamos
Dynamos
FT
3 – 1
Tenax
Tenax
3/13/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamos59%
×Draw27%
Tenax14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamos
1.41
Tenax
0.52

Dynamos creates 171% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamos
1.00
Tenax
0.47

allows per match

Dynamos
0.57
Tenax
1.82

finishing

Dynamos+0.00on par
Tenax+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamos ↓

Tenax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamos or draw
86%
Dynamos or Tenax
73%
Draw or Tenax
41%

Winning margin

Dynamos wins by 2+
30%
Tenax wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dynamos 1+ goals
76%
Dynamos 2+ goals
41%
Dynamos 3+ goals
17%
Tenax 1+ goals
41%
Tenax 2+ goals
10%
Tenax 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dynamos (draw refunded)
81%
Tenax (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 96 matches

Tenax away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamos attack 1.00 + Tenax defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tenax attack 0.47 + Dynamos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamos scores more
59%
level
27%
Tenax scores more
14%

Dynamos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamos vs Tenax

Dynamos beat Tenax 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.