Dynamos 2–0 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Dynamos

FT

2 – 0

Mushowani Stars

8/11/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dynamos50%

×Draw29%

Mushowani Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamosExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.70

Dynamos

1.28

Mushowani Stars

0.70

Dynamos creates 83% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.57

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Dynamos

1.00

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Dynamos

0.57

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamos+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamos ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dynamos or draw

80%

Dynamos or Mushowani Stars

71%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

50%

Winning margin

Dynamos wins by 2+

23%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dynamos 1+ goals

72%

Dynamos 2+ goals

37%

Dynamos 3+ goals

14%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

50%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

16%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dynamos (draw refunded)

71%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 96 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamos attack 1.00 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Dynamos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamos scores more

50%

level

29%

Mushowani Stars scores more

20%

Dynamos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff