Dynamos 1–0 Chapungu United: Result & Stats

Dynamos

FT

1 – 0

Chapungu United

7/7/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamos42%

×Draw36%

Chapungu United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamosExpected goals in this matchChapungu United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.55

Dynamos

0.91

Chapungu United

0.55

Dynamos creates 65% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.53

0.57

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Dynamos

1.00

Chapungu United

0.53

allows per match

Dynamos

0.57

Chapungu United

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamos+0.00on par

Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamos ↓

Chapungu United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Dynamos or draw

79%

Dynamos or Chapungu United

64%

Draw or Chapungu United

58%

Winning margin

Dynamos wins by 2+

16%

Chapungu United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dynamos 1+ goals

60%

Dynamos 2+ goals

23%

Dynamos 3+ goals

6%

Chapungu United 1+ goals

42%

Chapungu United 2+ goals

11%

Chapungu United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dynamos (draw refunded)

67%

Chapungu United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 96 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamos attack 1.00 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Dynamos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamos scores more

42%

level

36%

Chapungu United scores more

21%

Dynamos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff