Dynamo 2–2 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Dynamo

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Shanghai Shenhua

I. Sergeev 46'

Bitello 4'

Wu Xi 45'

Rafael Ratao 2'

1/23/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo52%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Shenhua26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

Dynamo

1.89

Shanghai Shenhua

1.27

Dynamo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.11

creates per match

1.33

1.22

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dynamo

2.11

Shanghai Shenhua

1.33

allows per match

Dynamo

1.22

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

74%

Dynamo or Shanghai Shenhua

77%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

48%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

29%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

85%

Dynamo 2+ goals

56%

Dynamo 3+ goals

29%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

72%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

36%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

67%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.11 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.33 + Dynamo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo scores more

52%

level

23%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

26%

Dynamo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

46'

Dynamo

Shanghai

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Valeriy Karpin

Dynamo substitutes

31Leshchuk47Kudravets3Khubulov7Skopintsev8Balakhonov9Miroshnichenko14Maouhoub20Isaev21Miranchuk33Sergeev50Kutitsky56Zaydenzal60Marinkin77Tikhomirov88Okishor

Manager: Leonid Slutski

Shanghai Shenhua substitutes

12Yifan2Shilong33Haijian34Chengyu40Ming38Wu35Yue45Jiawen48Zhang17Tianyi

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Shanghai Shenhua

Dynamo and Shanghai Shenhua drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 23, 2026.

Goals: Rafael Ratao (2'), Bitello (4'), Wu Xi (45'), I. Sergeev (46').

Dynamo vs Shanghai Shenhua — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Shanghai Shenhua