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Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dynamo
Dynamo
CANC
07:30
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dynamo59%
×Draw21%
Rodina Moskva20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
2.05
Rodina Moskva
1.10

Dynamo creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.20
Rodina Moskva
0.90

allows per match

Dynamo
1.30
Rodina Moskva
1.90

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
80%
Dynamo or Rodina Moskva
79%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
41%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
36%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo 2+ goals
61%
Dynamo 3+ goals
33%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
75%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.20 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.05

Rodina Moskva attack 0.90 + Dynamo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo scores more
59%
level
21%
Rodina Moskva scores more
20%

Dynamo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva — Match Preview

Dynamo face Rodina Moskva on July 6, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dynamo host Rodina Moskva at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.