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Dynamo vs Akron — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Akron
Akron
I. Sergeev 88'
S. Loncar 80'
D. Pestryakov 62'
11/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dynamo52%
×Draw22%
Akron26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.92
Akron
1.29

Dynamo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.16
Akron
1.28

allows per match

Dynamo
1.29
Akron
1.67

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
74%
Dynamo or Akron
78%
Draw or Akron
48%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
30%
Akron wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo 2+ goals
57%
Dynamo 3+ goals
30%
Akron 1+ goals
72%
Akron 2+ goals
37%
Akron 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
67%
Akron (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Akron away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Akron defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Akron attack 1.28 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo scores more
52%
level
22%
Akron scores more
26%

Dynamo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
I. SergeevDynamoDynamo · F
8.2

Match Events

10'
Rodrigo Escoval
22'
Aleksandr Kutitskiy
46'
S. Bakaev← M. Kuzmin
46'
M. Boldyrev← Benchimol
54'
Ifet Đakovac
62'
D. Pestryakov↳ K. Khosonov
63'
I. Sergeev← U. Babaev
63'
V. Okishor← A. Kutitsky
80'
S. Loncar
81'
A. Djurasovic← I. Djakovac
88'
I. Sergeev↳ K. Tyukavin
90+4'
Roberto Fernández

Possession

68%Dynamo

Shots

16Dynamo

Pass accuracy

55%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoAkron
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots5
8Corners1
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots5
7On Target3
4Off Target2
5Blocked0
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box0
Passing
68%Possession32%
517Total Passes253
427Accurate Passes172
83%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Akron

Akron beat Dynamo 2-1 in Premier League on November 8, 2025.

Goals: D. Pestryakov (62'), S. Loncar (80'), I. Sergeev (88').

Dynamo controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.