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Dynamo vs Akhmat — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Akhmat
Akhmat
L. Gagnidze 90+9'
D. Makarov 90+3'
K. Tyukavin 48'
J. Carrascal 43' (pen)
L. Sadulaev 63'
M. Luna Diale 54'
9/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dynamo56%
×Draw22%
Akhmat23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
2.00
Akhmat
1.20

Dynamo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.16
Akhmat
1.11

allows per match

Dynamo
1.29
Akhmat
1.83

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
77%
Dynamo or Akhmat
78%
Draw or Akhmat
44%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
33%
Akhmat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo 2+ goals
59%
Dynamo 3+ goals
32%
Akhmat 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
71%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Akhmat defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Akhmat attack 1.11 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dynamo scores more
56%
level
22%
Akhmat scores more
23%

Dynamo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
G. SheliaAkhmatAkhmat · G
8.3

Match Events

41'
Konstantin TyukavinPenalty confirmed
43'
J. CarrascalPenalty
46'
V. Kamilov← D. Utkin
48'
K. Tyukavin↳ E. Dasa
54'
M. Luna Diale↳ V. Kamilov
62'
M. Samorodov← Felippe Cardoso
63'
L. Sadulaev↳ M. Luna Diale
67'
E. Maouhoub← D. Skopintsev
67'
N. Marichal← Arthur Gomes
73'
Lechi Sadulaev
76'
S. Kovachev← L. Sadulaev
76'
Ismael Silva← M. Luna Diale
78'
Darko Todorović
82'
N. Ghandri← Camilo
83'
D. Makarov← Y. Gladyshev
90+9'
Nader Ghandri
90+6'
A. Kutitskiy← J. Carrascal
90+5'
L. Gagnidze← Bitello
90+3'
D. Makarov
90+9'
L. Gagnidze↳ E. Maouhoub

Possession

60%Dynamo

Shots

22Dynamo

Pass accuracy

51%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoAkhmat
Overview
60%Possession40%
22Total Shots15
7Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
22Total Shots15
13On Target5
5Off Target8
4Blocked2
17Inside Box12
5Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
445Total Passes300
352Accurate Passes228
79%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
9Fouls7
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Premier League: Dynamo 4–2 Akhmat

Dynamo beat Akhmat 4-2 in Premier League on September 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Carrascal (43' pen), K. Tyukavin (48'), M. Luna Diale (54'), L. Sadulaev (63'), D. Makarov (90+3'), L. Gagnidze (90+9').

Dynamo controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.