Dynamo Unacob 2–0 Tonnerre: Result & Stats

Dynamo Unacob

FT

2 – 0

Tonnerre

4/30/2023

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 7Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dynamo Unacob39%

×Draw32%

Tonnerre28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo UnacobExpected goals in this matchTonnerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.81

Dynamo Unacob

1.01

Tonnerre

0.81

Dynamo Unacob creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

0.92

creates per match

0.80

0.81

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob

0.92

Tonnerre

0.80

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob

0.81

Tonnerre

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Tonnerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw

72%

Dynamo Unacob or Tonnerre

68%

Draw or Tonnerre

61%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+

15%

Tonnerre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals

64%

Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals

27%

Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals

8%

Tonnerre 1+ goals

56%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

19%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)

58%

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Tonnerre defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tonnerre attack 0.80 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more

39%

level

32%

Tonnerre scores more

28%

Dynamo Unacob at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff