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Dynamo Unacob vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
1 – 0
Dragons
Dragons
2/21/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 16Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob38%
×Draw33%
Dragons29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.97
Dragons
0.81

Dynamo Unacob creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 118 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Dragons
0.81

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Dragons
1.02

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
71%
Dynamo Unacob or Dragons
67%
Draw or Dragons
62%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
14%
Dragons wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
62%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
7%
Dragons 1+ goals
56%
Dragons 2+ goals
19%
Dragons 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
57%
Dragons (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Dragons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dragons attack 0.81 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
38%
level
33%
Dragons scores more
29%

Dynamo Unacob at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Unacob 1–0 Dragons

Dynamo Unacob beat Dragons 1-0 in Championnat National on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.