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Dynamo Unacob vs BOA — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BOA
BOA
11/30/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 10Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo Unacob47%
×Draw31%
BOA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
1.17
BOA
0.70

Dynamo Unacob creates 67% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
BOA
0.59

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
BOA
1.41

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
78%
Dynamo Unacob or BOA
69%
Draw or BOA
53%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
21%
BOA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
11%
BOA 1+ goals
50%
BOA 2+ goals
16%
BOA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
68%
BOA (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

BOA away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + BOA defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

BOA attack 0.59 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
47%
level
31%
BOA scores more
22%

Dynamo Unacob at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Unacob vs BOA

Dynamo Unacob and BOA drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.