Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Unacob vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
10/29/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 2Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob39%
×Draw32%
Béké Bembèrèkè29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
1.04
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.85

Dynamo Unacob creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 92 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.90

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.16

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
71%
Dynamo Unacob or Béké Bembèrèkè
68%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
61%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
15%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
9%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
57%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
21%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
57%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.90 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
39%
level
32%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
29%

Dynamo Unacob at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Unacob 1–1 Béké Bembèrèkè

Dynamo Unacob and Béké Bembèrèkè drew 1-1 in Championnat National on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.