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Dynamo Unacob vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
0 – 2
Ayema
Ayema
11/10/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob33%
×Draw34%
Ayema33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.86
Ayema
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 123 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Ayema
0.89

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Ayema
0.81

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
67%
Dynamo Unacob or Ayema
66%
Draw or Ayema
67%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
11%
Ayema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
58%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
21%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
6%
Ayema 1+ goals
57%
Ayema 2+ goals
21%
Ayema 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
50%
Ayema (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Ayema defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Ayema attack 0.89 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
33%
level
34%
Ayema scores more
33%

Dynamo Unacob at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Dynamo Unacob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Unacob vs Ayema

Ayema beat Dynamo Unacob 2-0 in Championnat National on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.