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Dynamo Schwerin vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
6/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin39%
×Draw23%
Tasmania Berlin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Tasmania Berlin
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 66 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
62%
Dynamo Schwerin or Tasmania Berlin
77%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
61%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
20%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
23%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
48%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
51%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
39%
level
23%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
38%

Dynamo Schwerin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Schwerin vs Tasmania Berlin

Dynamo Schwerin and Tasmania Berlin drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.