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Dynamo Schwerin vs RSV Eintracht — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
9/16/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin43%
×Draw23%
RSV Eintracht34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.81
RSV Eintracht
1.59

Dynamo Schwerin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
RSV Eintracht
1.67

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
RSV Eintracht
1.98

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

RSV Eintracht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
66%
Dynamo Schwerin or RSV Eintracht
77%
Draw or RSV Eintracht
57%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
23%
RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
54%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
27%
RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
80%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
47%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
56%
RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

RSV Eintracht away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

RSV Eintracht attack 1.67 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
43%
level
23%
RSV Eintracht scores more
34%

Dynamo Schwerin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Dynamo Schwerin 1–2 RSV Eintracht

RSV Eintracht beat Dynamo Schwerin 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.