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Dynamo Schwerin vs Optik Rathenow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
8/24/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin48%
×Draw23%
Optik Rathenow29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.84
Optik Rathenow
1.39

Dynamo Schwerin creates 32% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Optik Rathenow
1.26

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
Optik Rathenow
2.03

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Optik Rathenow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
71%
Dynamo Schwerin or Optik Rathenow
77%
Draw or Optik Rathenow
52%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
26%
Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
55%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
28%
Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
75%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
40%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
62%
Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.84

Optik Rathenow attack 1.26 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
48%
level
23%
Optik Rathenow scores more
29%

Dynamo Schwerin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dynamo Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Dynamo Schwerin 1–4 Optik Rathenow

Optik Rathenow beat Dynamo Schwerin 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.