Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Schwerin vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
8/8/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin41%
×Draw24%
Neustrelitz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Neustrelitz
1.50

Dynamo Schwerin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
65%
Dynamo Schwerin or Neustrelitz
76%
Draw or Neustrelitz
59%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
21%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
23%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
78%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
44%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
54%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
41%
level
24%
Neustrelitz scores more
35%

Dynamo Schwerin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Dynamo Schwerin 3–2 Neustrelitz

Dynamo Schwerin beat Neustrelitz 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.