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Dynamo Schwerin vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1/27/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Sportplatz Großer Dreesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin36%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.54
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
60%
Dynamo Schwerin or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
76%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
64%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
17%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
20%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
81%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
49%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
47%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
36%
level
24%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
40%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Schwerin vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Dynamo Schwerin 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Großer Dreesch in Schwerin.