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Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Sevastopol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Sevastopol
Sevastopol
9/6/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II21%
×Draw24%
Sevastopol54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.97
Sevastopol
1.70

Sevastopol creates 75% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.76
Sevastopol
1.60

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.80
Sevastopol
1.19

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par
Sevastopol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Sevastopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw
46%
Dynamo Makhachkala II or Sevastopol
76%
Draw or Sevastopol
79%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
7%
Sevastopol wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
62%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
7%
Sevastopol 1+ goals
82%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
51%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
28%
Sevastopol (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Sevastopol away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Sevastopol defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sevastopol attack 1.60 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
21%
level
24%
Sevastopol scores more
54%

Sevastopol at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dynamo Makhachkala II 1–4 Sevastopol

Sevastopol beat Dynamo Makhachkala II 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 6, 2025.