Dynamo Makhachkala II 2–2 Kuban Kholding

Dynamo Makhachkala II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kuban Kholding

5/10/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II20%

×Draw25%

Kuban Kholding54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Makhachkala IIExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.58

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.86

Kuban Kholding

1.58

Kuban Kholding creates 84% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 91 away

0.76

creates per match

1.35

1.80

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.76

Kuban Kholding

1.35

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.80

Kuban Kholding

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw

46%

Dynamo Makhachkala II or Kuban Kholding

75%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

80%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

7%

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

58%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

21%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

6%

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

79%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

47%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

27%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

20%

level

25%

Kuban Kholding scores more

54%

Kuban Kholding at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff