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Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
9/24/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Trud Makhachkala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II44%
×Draw25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.58
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.29

Dynamo Makhachkala II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.76
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.80
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw
69%
Dynamo Makhachkala II or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
75%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
56%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
47%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
37%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
59%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
44%
level
25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
31%

Dynamo Makhachkala II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Makhachkala II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dynamo Makhachkala II 0–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Dynamo Makhachkala II and Alaniya Vladikavkaz II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud Makhachkala in Makhachkala.