Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Vorskla Poltava: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vorskla Poltava

9/18/2023

Premier League · Round 7Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv59%

×Draw24%

Vorskla Poltava18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.83

Dynamo Kyiv

1.73

Vorskla Poltava

0.83

Dynamo Kyiv creates 108% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 82 away

2.07

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.07

Vorskla Poltava

0.91

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.75

Vorskla Poltava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Vorskla Poltava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

82%

Dynamo Kyiv or Vorskla Poltava

76%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava

41%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

33%

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

52%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

25%

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

56%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

20%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

77%

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.75 · 99 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.07 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

59%

level

24%

Vorskla Poltava scores more

18%

Dynamo Kyiv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff