Dynamo Kyiv 0–2 Villarreal: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villarreal

Albiol 52'

Pau Torres 30'

3/11/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 16Olimpiysky National Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv16%

×Draw28%

Villarreal57%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchVillarreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

1.40

Dynamo Kyiv

0.59

Villarreal

1.40

Villarreal creates 137% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

0.69

creates per match

1.42

1.38

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.69

Villarreal

1.42

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

Villarreal

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Villarreal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Villarreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–119%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

43%

Dynamo Kyiv or Villarreal

72%

Draw or Villarreal

84%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

4%

Villarreal wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

45%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

12%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

2%

Villarreal 1+ goals

75%

Villarreal 2+ goals

41%

Villarreal 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

22%

Villarreal (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + Villarreal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.59

Villarreal attack 1.42 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

16%

level

28%

Villarreal scores more

57%

Villarreal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Dani Parejo

Villarreal · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

24'

Alfonso Pedraza

30'

Pau Torres↳ Gerard Moreno

46'

Ramiro Funes Mori← Pau Torres

52'

Albiol

63'

C. Bacca← Paco Alcácer

65'

Étienne Capoue

68'

O. Andrievskyi← S. Sydorchuk

68'

V. Shepelev← M. Shaparenko

84'

O. Karavaev← T. Kędziora

84'

Jaume Costa← S. Chukwueze

85'

Moi Gómez← Manu Trigueros

90'

Álex Baena← Gerard Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoVillarreal

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots15

4Corners4

11Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots15

0On Target6

7Off Target5

1Blocked4

3Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

449Total Passes439

377Accurate Passes364

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1