Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Sturm Graz: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sturm Graz

O. Karavaev 28'

8/3/2022

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv70%

×Draw21%

Sturm Graz9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.47

Dynamo Kyiv

1.83

Sturm Graz

0.47

Dynamo Kyiv creates 289% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

0.94

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.00

Sturm Graz

0.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.94

Sturm Graz

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Sturm Graz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

91%

Dynamo Kyiv or Sturm Graz

79%

Draw or Sturm Graz

30%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

43%

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

84%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

54%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

28%

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

37%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

8%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

89%

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.00 + Sturm Graz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sturm Graz attack 0.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

70%

level

21%

Sturm Graz scores more

9%

Dynamo Kyiv at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Shaparenko

Dynamo Kyiv · M

7.9

Match Events

16'

Gregory Wüthrich

20'

Denys Popov

28'

O. Karavaev↳ A. Besedin

41'

Jon Gorenc Stanković

46'

Stefan Hierländer

48'

Volodymyr Shepeliev

67'

I. Ljubic← S. Hierländer

68'

D. Schnegg← A. Danté

71'

K. Vivcharenko← V. Dubinchak

71'

D. Garmash← V. Shepelev

78'

V. Demaku← A. Prass

83'

V. Vanat← A. Besedin

89'

C. Lang← R. Højlund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoSturm

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots13

7Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots13

1On Target3

8Off Target5

5Blocked5

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

656Total Passes341

561Accurate Passes259

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3