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Dynamo Kyiv vs Rīgas FS — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv49%
×Draw22%
Rīgas FS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Rīgas FS
1.41

Dynamo Kyiv creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.41
Rīgas FS
1.75

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.06
Rīgas FS
1.38

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
71%
Dynamo Kyiv or Rīgas FS
78%
Draw or Rīgas FS
51%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
27%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
56%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
29%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
76%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
41%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
63%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.41 + Rīgas FS defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rīgas FS attack 1.75 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
49%
level
22%
Rīgas FS scores more
29%

Dynamo Kyiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Rīgas FS

Dynamo Kyiv beat Rīgas FS 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.