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Dynamo Kyiv vs Obolon'-Brovar — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Obolon'-Brovar
Obolon'-Brovar
12/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv65%
×Draw21%
Obolon'-Brovar14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.94
Obolon'-Brovar
0.76

Dynamo Kyiv creates 155% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Obolon'-Brovar
0.65

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Obolon'-Brovar
1.44

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Obolon'-Brovar-0.02on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Obolon'-Brovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
86%
Dynamo Kyiv or Obolon'-Brovar
79%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar
35%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
40%
Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
58%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
30%
Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals
53%
Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals
18%
Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
82%
Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Obolon'-Brovar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.65 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
65%
level
21%
Obolon'-Brovar scores more
14%

Dynamo Kyiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Obolon'-Brovar

Dynamo Kyiv beat Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 in Premier League on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.