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Dynamo Kyiv vs Kauno Žalgiris — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
1/30/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv33%
×Draw25%
Kauno Žalgiris42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53

Kauno Žalgiris creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.41
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
58%
Dynamo Kyiv or Kauno Žalgiris
75%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
67%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
15%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
74%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
38%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
15%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
78%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
45%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
44%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.41 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kauno Žalgiris attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
33%
level
25%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
42%

Kauno Žalgiris at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Kauno Žalgiris

Kauno Žalgiris beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 30, 2026.