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Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
12/18/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Motor Lublin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv68%
×Draw18%
FC Noah15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
2.48
FC Noah
1.08

Dynamo Kyiv creates 130% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.50
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.25
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
85%
Dynamo Kyiv or FC Noah
82%
Draw or FC Noah
32%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
45%
FC Noah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
92%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
70%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
44%
FC Noah 1+ goals
66%
FC Noah 2+ goals
29%
FC Noah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
82%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.50 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.48

FC Noah attack 0.92 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
68%
level
18%
FC Noah scores more
15%

Dynamo Kyiv at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 FC Noah

Dynamo Kyiv beat FC Noah 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 18, 2025.

The match was played at Motor Lublin Arena in Lublin.