Dynamo Kyiv 0–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Crystal Palace

10/2/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Motor Lublin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv44%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.41

Dynamo Kyiv

1.68

Crystal Palace

1.41

Dynamo Kyiv creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

1.57

1.25

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.50

Crystal Palace

1.57

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.25

Crystal Palace

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

68%

Dynamo Kyiv or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

56%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

23%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

81%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

50%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

24%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

76%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

58%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.50 + Crystal Palace defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Crystal Palace attack 1.57 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

44%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

32%

Dynamo Kyiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff