Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Benfica: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica

9/14/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv36%

×Draw27%

Benfica37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Dynamo Kyiv

1.21

Benfica

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

1.53

0.94

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.00

Benfica

1.53

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.94

Benfica

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

63%

Dynamo Kyiv or Benfica

73%

Draw or Benfica

64%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

15%

Benfica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

12%

Benfica 1+ goals

71%

Benfica 2+ goals

35%

Benfica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

49%

Benfica (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Benfica attack 1.53 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

36%

level

27%

Benfica scores more

37%

Benfica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

O. Vlachodimos

Benfica · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

44'

52'

59'

59'

59'

D. Núñez← R. Yaremchuk

60'

D. Harmash← I. Shkurin

71'

Julian Weigl

73'

Ilya Zabarnyi

76'

B. Verbič← C. de Pena

76'

O. Karavaev← V. Tsygankov

82'

Denys Garmash

85'

A. Taarabt← João Mário

90+4'

Mykola ShaparenkoGoal cancelled

90'

Pizzi← Rafa Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoBenfica

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots12

5Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target4

1Off Target2

3Blocked6

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

288Total Passes630

214Accurate Passes562

74%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

8Offsides0