Dynamo Kyiv U19 1–0 Septemvri Sofia U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia U19

V. Voloshyn 41'

10/3/2018

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundStadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky (Kyjiv (Kiev))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1973%

×Draw18%

Septemvri Sofia U199%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Kyiv U19Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.63

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.17

Septemvri Sofia U19

0.63

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 244% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

0.33

0.92

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.67

Septemvri Sofia U19

0.33

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19

0.92

Septemvri Sofia U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

Septemvri Sofia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw

91%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or Septemvri Sofia U19

82%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia U19

27%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

48%

Septemvri Sofia U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

89%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

64%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

36%

Septemvri Sofia U19 1+ goals

47%

Septemvri Sofia U19 2+ goals

13%

Septemvri Sofia U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Septemvri Sofia U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Septemvri Sofia U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.67 + Septemvri Sofia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Septemvri Sofia U19 attack 0.33 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

73%

level

18%

Septemvri Sofia U19 scores more

9%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

V. Voloshyn

64'

I. Isaienko← M. Dukhan

67'

S. Georgiev← R. Alov

74'

N. Kolev← D. Kostadinov

76'

Y. Nadolskyi← V. Voloshyn

84'

M. Todorov← O. Hamdiev

86'

M. Zavhorodnii← V. Supriaha

Dynamo

Septemvri

1

23

5

4

8

17

▼

22

10

11

16

▼

Alov

7

▼

1

19

2

4

23

10

5

11

15

⚽

▼

Voloshyn

7

▼

Dukhan

89

▼

Supriaha

Manager: I. Kostyuk

64'▲I. Isaienko←▼M. Dukhan

76'▲Y. Nadolskyi←▼V. Voloshyn

86'▲M. Zavhorodnii←▼V. Supriaha

Dynamo Kyiv U19 substitutes

9Isaienko17Nadolskyi20Zavhorodnii3Chuiev21Mykhailenko6Bodnia12Morgun

Manager: S. Petrov

67'▲S. Georgiev←▼R. Alov

74'▲N. Kolev←▼D. Kostadinov

84'▲M. Todorov←▼O. Hamdiev

Septemvri Sofia U19 substitutes

15Georgiev25Kolev19Todorov9Ganev6Neyazi12Hristov14Chatov

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 beat Septemvri Sofia U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2018.

Goals: V. Voloshyn (41').

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky (Kyjiv (Kiev)).

Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19