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Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Metalist 1925 U19 — U19 League 2023

Dynamo Kyiv U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metalist 1925 U19
Metalist 1925 U19
10/3/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1979%
×Draw13%
Metalist 1925 U198%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv U19
3.03
Metalist 1925 U19
0.89

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 240% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
3.56
Metalist 1925 U19
1.37

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
0.40
Metalist 1925 U19
2.50

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

Metalist 1925 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw
92%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 or Metalist 1925 U19
87%
Draw or Metalist 1925 U19
21%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
60%
Metalist 1925 U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals
95%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals
80%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals
57%
Metalist 1925 U19 1+ goals
59%
Metalist 1925 U19 2+ goals
22%
Metalist 1925 U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
91%
Metalist 1925 U19 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 3.56, concedes 0.40 · 45 matches

Metalist 1925 U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 3.56 + Metalist 1925 U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.03

Metalist 1925 U19 attack 1.37 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more
79%
level
13%
Metalist 1925 U19 scores more
8%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Metalist 1925 U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 beat Metalist 1925 U19 3-0 in U19 League on October 3, 2025.