Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Dynamo Kyiv U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb U19
Dinamo Zagreb U19
2/12/2020UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1968%
×Draw18%
Dinamo Zagreb U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv U19
2.29
Dinamo Zagreb U19
0.92

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
2.67
Dinamo Zagreb U19
0.91

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
0.92
Dinamo Zagreb U19
1.91

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw
86%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19
82%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19
32%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
45%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals
90%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals
66%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals
40%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals
60%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.67 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.29

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more
68%
level
18%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more
14%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Dynamo Kyiv U19 0–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 and Dinamo Zagreb U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky in Kiev.