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Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
6/9/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 27Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dynamo Dresden50%
×Draw24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden
1.71
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.16

Dynamo Dresden creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.81
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.28

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.03
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.60

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.36scores more
SpVgg Greuther Furth-0.01on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw
74%
Dynamo Dresden or SpVgg Greuther Furth
76%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
50%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
27%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
82%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
51%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
69%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
32%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
66%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.81 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.28 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more
50%
level
24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
26%

Dynamo Dresden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Furth drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on June 9, 2020.

The match was played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in Dresden.