Dynamo Dresden 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Dynamo Dresden

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

D. Keita-Ruel 85'

9/30/2018

2. Bundesliga · Round 8Rudolf-Harbig Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dynamo Dresden50%

×Draw24%

SpVgg Greuther Furth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Dynamo Dresden

1.71

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.16

Dynamo Dresden creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.81

creates per match

1.28

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.81

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.28

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.03

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.36scores more

SpVgg Greuther Furth-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

74%

Dynamo Dresden or SpVgg Greuther Furth

76%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

50%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

27%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

51%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

24%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

69%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

32%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

66%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.81 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.28 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

50%

level

24%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

26%

Dynamo Dresden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Wittek

SpVgg Greuther Furth · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

Lukas Gugganig

29'

F. Reese← Y. Ideguchi

53'

Maximilian Sauer

66'

N. Kreuzer← L. Wahlqvist

66'

71'

74'

80'

85'

D. Keita-Ruel↳ M. Wittek

89'

M. Caligiuri← D. Atanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoSpVgg

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots14

7Corners3

7Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots14

3On Target2

7Off Target9

5Blocked3

6Inside Box7

9Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

453Total Passes355

335Accurate Passes237

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

6Offsides2