Dynamo Dresden 0–1 Hertha BSC: Result & Stats

Dynamo Dresden

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha BSC

M. Winkler 80'

4/4/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Dynamo Dresden52%

×Draw23%

Hertha BSC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchHertha BSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.25

Dynamo Dresden

1.86

Hertha BSC

1.25

Dynamo Dresden creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.76

creates per match

1.54

0.95

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.76

Hertha BSC

1.54

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

0.95

Hertha BSC

1.96

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.15scores more

Hertha BSC+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Hertha BSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

74%

Dynamo Dresden or Hertha BSC

77%

Draw or Hertha BSC

48%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

29%

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

84%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

55%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

28%

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

71%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

36%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

67%

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.76 + Hertha BSC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hertha BSC attack 1.54 + Dynamo Dresden defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

52%

level

23%

Hertha BSC scores more

26%

Dynamo Dresden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Winkler

Hertha BSC · M

8.2

Match Events

26'

27'

40'

61'

64'

66'

68'

K. Eichhorn← K. Sessa

68'

M. Dardai← M. Karbownik

76'

Alexander RossipalPenalty confirmed

77'

M. Cuisance← D. Kownacki

80'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

80'

L. Herrmann← N. Hauptmann

80'

M. Winkler↳ F. Reese

90'

N. Froling← K. Amoako

90+3'

J. Eitschberger← M. Winkler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoHertha

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots10

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.91

6Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target5

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

513Total Passes373

439Accurate Passes307

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

1.69Goals Prevented1.69

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0