Dynamo Dresden U19 0–1 Ingolstadt U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ingolstadt U19

Jaime Júnior 90+1' (pen)

5/24/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 5Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1942%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.82

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.95

Ingolstadt U19

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 73 away

2.19

creates per match

2.10

1.54

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Ingolstadt U19

2.10

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

63%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Ingolstadt U19

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

58%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

23%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

58%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

31%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

84%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

54%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

42%

level

21%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

37%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Q. Grafe← L. Krause

46'

A. Seifert← M. Albert

46'

M. Vulcano← E. Eßlinger

57'

C. Förster← O. Ohnesorge

57'

M. Raschke← S. Collins

57'

M. Seifert← B. Kummerow

57'

T. Zvonek← D. Arnold

70'

D. Dedaj← F. Stahl

70'

G. Ambrosio← M. Ham

70'

Jaime Júnior← B. Öztürk

90+1'

Jaime JúniorPenalty

Dynamo

Ingolstadt

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲Q. Grafe←▼L. Krause

57'▲C. Förster←▼O. Ohnesorge

57'▲M. Raschke←▼S. Collins

57'▲M. Seifert←▼B. Kummerow

57'▲T. Zvonek←▼D. Arnold

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

GrafeFörsterRaschkeSeifertZvonekVollmer

Manager: S. Wittmann

46'▲A. Seifert←▼M. Albert

46'▲M. Vulcano←▼E. Eßlinger

70'▲D. Dedaj←▼F. Stahl

70'▲G. Ambrosio←▼M. Ham

70'▲Jaime Júnior←▼B. Öztürk

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

SeifertVulcanoDedajAmbrosioJúniorBrinkmannDrakulic