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Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
11/30/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1937%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.85
Hertha BSC U19
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.21
Hertha BSC U19
2.38

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.58
Hertha BSC U19
1.49

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par
Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw
58%
Dynamo Dresden U19 or Hertha BSC U19
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC U19
63%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
19%
Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
55%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
28%
Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
86%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
59%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.21 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.38 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
37%
level
21%
Hertha BSC U19 scores more
42%

Hertha BSC U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.