Dynamo Dresden U19 1–2 Hertha BSC U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

E. Zeil 50'

T. Gündüz 69'

I. Maza 28'

11/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1935%

×Draw21%

Hertha BSC U1943%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.00

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.80

Hertha BSC U19

2.00

Hertha BSC U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 78 away

2.19

creates per match

2.46

1.54

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Hertha BSC U19

2.46

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Hertha BSC U19

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

57%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Hertha BSC U19

79%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

65%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

83%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

54%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

27%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

86%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

59%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.46 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

43%

Hertha BSC U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

I. Maza

50'

E. Zeil

60'

C. Kosak← J. Hoffmann

69'

T. Gündüz

70'

C. Bräunling← J.Saliger

70'

M. Krause← P. Lehmann

75'

D. Schickersinsky← L. Popp

83'

T. Menzel← E. Zeil

84'

E. Strasner← L. Michelbrink

84'

O. Rölke← P. Pereira Mendes

90+3'

D. Karsten← T. Gündüz

Dynamo

Hertha

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weisse

60'▲C. Kosak←▼J. Hoffmann

70'▲C. Bräunling←▼J.Saliger

70'▲M. Krause←▼P. Lehmann

83'▲T. Menzel←▼E. Zeil

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

KosakBräunlingKrauseMenzelHradiskýOrthGrafe

Manager: O. Reiß

75'▲D. Schickersinsky←▼L. Popp

84'▲E. Strasner←▼L. Michelbrink

84'▲O. Rölke←▼P. Pereira Mendes

90+3'▲D. Karsten←▼T. Gündüz

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

SchickersinskyStrasnerRölkeKarstenSommerConradAkova