Dynamo Dresden U19 4–0 Hallescher FC U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hallescher FC U19

M. Fischer 79', 30' (pen)

F. Göpfert 67'

D. Bohdanov 36'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1958%

×Draw20%

Hallescher FC U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.39

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.35

Hallescher FC U19

1.39

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

2.19

creates per match

1.24

1.54

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

78%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Hallescher FC U19

80%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

42%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

37%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

90%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

68%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

41%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

75%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

40%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.35

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

22%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. FischerPenalty

36'

D. Bohdanov

54'

N. Janne← B. Serifoski

67'

F. Göpfert

70'

F. Müller← F. Göpfert

70'

J. Wagner← M. Glück

70'

M. von Zansen← D. Zürn

70'

Mohamed Samadi← N. Hüttig

79'

D. Bartholome← L. Hein

79'

T. Jahn← J. Dolla

79'

M. Fischer

82'

C. Tölg← N. Wagner

82'

L. Eilke← D. Bohdanov

82'

O. Ohnesorge← M. Fischer

Dynamo

Hallescher

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bohdanov

⚽2

▼

Fischer

Manager: S. König

70'▲F. Müller←▼F. Göpfert

82'▲C. Tölg←▼N. Wagner

82'▲L. Eilke←▼D. Bohdanov

82'▲O. Ohnesorge←▼M. Fischer

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

MüllerTölgEilkeOhnesorgeSchrumpfLogiewaGandlau

Manager: T. Donath

54'▲N. Janne←▼B. Serifoski

70'▲J. Wagner←▼M. Glück

70'▲M. von Zansen←▼D. Zürn

70'▲Mohamed Samadi←▼N. Hüttig

79'▲D. Bartholome←▼L. Hein

79'▲T. Jahn←▼J. Dolla

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

JanneWagnerZansenSamadiBartholomeJahnSchlosser