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Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Braunsch U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
12/2/2017U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1955%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Braunsch U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.41
Eintracht Braunsch U19
1.60

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.21
Eintracht Braunsch U19
1.63

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.58
Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.60

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw
75%
Dynamo Dresden U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19
80%
Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19
45%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
35%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
91%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
69%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
43%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals
80%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals
47%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.21 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.41

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.63 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more
25%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo Dresden U19 1 – 0 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 2, 2017.

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.