Dynamo Dresden U19 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bayer Leverkusen U19

J. Kanga 62'

F. Milojević 3'

9/2/2023

DFB Junioren Pokal · 1st RoundWalter-Fritzsch-Akademie Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1917%

×Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen U1962%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.04

Dynamo Dresden U19

0.96

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.04

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

2.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

0.67

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.75

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.33

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

38%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

79%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

83%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

62%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

25%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

87%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

60%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 0.67 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 1.75 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

17%

level

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

62%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Milojević

54'

O. Ohnesorge← A. Hradiský

62'

J. Kanga

64'

M. Szép← R. Petak

74'

C. Förster← J. Zickler

82'

B. Kummerow← C. Förster

82'

C. Tölg← Q. Grafe

87'

M. Flock← J. Kanga

90'

D. Lang← J. Zirkzee

Dynamo

Bayer

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weiße

54'▲O. Ohnesorge←▼A. Hradiský

74'▲C. Förster←▼J. Zickler

82'▲B. Kummerow←▼C. Förster

82'▲C. Tölg←▼Q. Grafe

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

OhnesorgeFörsterKummerowTölgRaschkeSeifertHilger

Manager: S. Hübscher

64'▲M. Szép←▼R. Petak

87'▲M. Flock←▼J. Kanga

90'▲D. Lang←▼J. Zirkzee

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

SzépFlockLangFeratiNovodomskyEichie

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 2-0 in DFB Junioren Pokal on September 2, 2023.

Goals: F. Milojević (3'), J. Kanga (62').

The match was played at Walter-Fritzsch-Akademie Rasenplatz 1 in Dresden.

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19