Dynamo Dresden U19 3–0 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

BAK 07 U19

L. Ehrlich 52'

T. Menzel 39'

J. Hasenberg 6'

2/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1960%

×Draw19%

BAK 07 U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.44

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.49

BAK 07 U19

1.44

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

2.19

creates per match

1.33

1.54

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

79%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or BAK 07 U19

81%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

40%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

39%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

92%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

71%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

45%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

76%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

42%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

74%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.49

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

39'

52'

63'

63'

70'

74'

M. Wetschka← J. Bulang

77'

E. Zeil← J. Hasenberg

77'

J. Hoffmann← J.Saliger

83'

B. Sevim← S. Akan

85'

C. Bräunling← T. Menzel

85'

L. Krause← L. Ehrlich

Dynamo

BAK

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ehrlich

▼

J.Saliger

⚽

▼

Menzel

Manager: W. Weisse

74'▲M. Wetschka←▼J. Bulang

77'▲E. Zeil←▼J. Hasenberg

77'▲J. Hoffmann←▼J.Saliger

85'▲C. Bräunling←▼T. Menzel

85'▲L. Krause←▼L. Ehrlich

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

WetschkaZeilHoffmannBräunlingKrauseVollmerWarneck

Manager: A. Arsovic

63'▲D.Kanyi←▼M. Belaid

63'▲M. Sungur←▼A. Akdağ

70'▲A. Aksoy←▼A. Lubaki

83'▲B. Sevim←▼S. Akan

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

D.KanyiSungurAksoySevimDağdemirIraqi

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 3–0 BAK 07 U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat BAK 07 U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Hasenberg (6'), T. Menzel (39'), L. Ehrlich (52').

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 3–0 BAK 07 U19