Dynamo de Douala 2–1 Victoria United

Dynamo de Douala

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria United

4/13/2023

Elite Two · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dynamo de Douala36%

×Draw29%

Victoria United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo de DoualaExpected goals in this matchVictoria United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Dynamo de Douala

1.14

Victoria United

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala

1.53

Victoria United

1.17

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala

1.11

Victoria United

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Victoria United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw

64%

Dynamo de Douala or Victoria United

71%

Draw or Victoria United

64%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

15%

Victoria United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

68%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

32%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

11%

Victoria United 1+ goals

68%

Victoria United 2+ goals

32%

Victoria United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

50%

Victoria United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Victoria United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.14

Victoria United attack 1.17 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more

36%

level

29%

Victoria United scores more

36%

Dynamo de Douala at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff