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Dynamo de Douala vs OFTA — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFTA
OFTA
1/22/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dynamo de Douala53%
×Draw26%
OFTA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.52
OFTA
0.85

Dynamo de Douala creates 79% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
OFTA
0.60

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
OFTA
1.50

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

OFTA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
79%
Dynamo de Douala or OFTA
74%
Draw or OFTA
47%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
27%
OFTA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
78%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
20%
OFTA 1+ goals
57%
OFTA 2+ goals
21%
OFTA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
72%
OFTA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

OFTA attack 0.60 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
53%
level
26%
OFTA scores more
21%

Dynamo de Douala at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Dynamo de Douala 1–0 OFTA

Dynamo de Douala beat OFTA 1-0 in Elite Two on January 22, 2023.