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Dynamo de Douala vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
CANC
00:00
Matelots
Matelots
6/4/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamo de Douala67%
×Draw19%
Matelots14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
2.18
Matelots
0.89

Dynamo de Douala creates 145% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Matelots
2.83

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
86%
Dynamo de Douala or Matelots
81%
Draw or Matelots
33%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
43%
Matelots wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
89%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
64%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
37%
Matelots 1+ goals
59%
Matelots 2+ goals
22%
Matelots 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
82%
Matelots (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.18

Matelots attack 0.67 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
67%
level
19%
Matelots scores more
14%

Dynamo de Douala at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo de Douala face Matelots (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Dynamo de Douala hosting Matelots. Match starts June 4, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.